Repurposing climate reconstructions for drought prediction in Southeast Asia

Climate information may help smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia take informed risks and reduce their climate vulnerability. Model-based seasonal forecasts are limited in the skill they offer with longer lead times, and in theiraccessibilitytofarmersinremoteregions.Climatereconstructionsderived from tree rings can complement model-based forecasts, providing probabilistic estimates of future climate at an annual resolution. This study demonstrates the skill of PDSI reconstructions derived from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) to forecast a climate signal several years into the future, and illustrates the advantage of such information vis-à-vis the simple strategy of assuming climate to persist from year to year. This work shows the potential forsuchclimatereconstructionstoimproveinter-annualdecisionsonSoutheast Asian farms, and highlights the social research necessary to transmute this potential into a valuable climate decision aid.